The Moon and the Markets

Does the phase of the moon affect the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a country? One of the few to have formally pursued this question is Dr. Stephen Keef, Teaching Fellow at the School of Economics and Finance of Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. His latest paper Are investors moonstruck? Further international evidence on lunar phases and stock returns (published in the Journal of Empirical Finance Volume 18, Issue 1, January 2011, Pages 56-63) investigates the influences of the new moon and the full moon on the daily returns of 62 international stock indices for the period 1988 to 2008. After accounting for the so-called Monday Effect, the Turn-of-the-Month Effect  and the Prior Day Effect it was determined that :

“The overall enhanced new moon effect is independent of GDP. An overall full moon effect is absent.”

Dr. Keef has also performed : A meta-analysis of the international evidence of cloud cover on stock returns

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